Last year I posted my odds for the 2009 NCAA tournament, and this year I’ve made some improvements to help me fill out my bracket.
This year I’ve modeled the difference in each team’s mean points per possession per game. This model can then be used to estimate the probability of one team beating another team. In other words, I am modeling the difference in the team’s efficiency ratings on a per game basis.
If you’re interested in all of the gory details then be sure to look for another post this weekend, as I’m presenting this and one other method at SIAM-SEAS this weekend, and I plan on posting that presentation here.
Kansas is estimated to win the tournament 24.8% of the time, but Duke is close behind with an estimated 24.5% chance of winning. The odds of Kansas or Duke winning is slightly less than 50%, so don’t be surprised if a team other than Kansas or Duke wins.
The estimated odds of each team proceeding to each round in the tournament can be found in this spreadsheet. These odds can be used to come up with the following bracket: